MMA what’s ifs: What if Holloway stayed at lightweight?

On 13th April, Max "Blessed" Holloway made the move up to lightweight to face Justin Gaethje in what quickly became an instant classic for the BMF title. Holloway, widely regarded as one of the greatest featherweights of all time, managed to knock out Gaethje in the final seconds of their thrilling contest. The knockout has been hailed by many as one of the greatest of all time. Heading into the final round, Holloway was leading four rounds to one, and in the dying moments of the fight, he pointed at the ground, inviting Gaethje to stand and trade with him.

After this impressive performance at lightweight, Holloway returned to his natural featherweight division to challenge knockout artist Ilia Topuria for the title. Holloway looked strong in the early rounds, but ultimately fell short, suffering a knockout loss. The fight was seen as a definitive changing of the guard, with Topuria not only defeating Holloway but also taking down reigning champion Alexander Volkanovski, two of the division's all-time greats. Holloway has since suggested that he will move up to lightweight permanently, indicating that he feels more comfortable and believes he is better suited to compete in the higher weight class.

But what if Holloway had never dropped back down to featherweight and had stayed in the lightweight division? A fight against either the champion Islam Makhachev or another top contender could have been in the cards. Had Holloway chosen to remain in the lightweight division, it’s likely that he would have faced Makhachev for the title instead of Dustin Poirier.

A matchup between Holloway and Makhachev would have been a challenging one for the Hawaiian. Makhachev, who has the size and strength of a welterweight, also boasts superior wrestling skills, which would likely have posed significant problems for Holloway. Given the size disparity, this would have likely been a straightforward victory for Makhachev, with Holloway eventually succumbing to the champion’s wrestling and likely being submitted.

However, if Holloway had faced contenders like Charles Oliveira or Dustin Poirier, the matchup could have been more competitive. Both Oliveira and Poirier, unlike Makhachev, would probably have opted to stand and trade with Holloway, which could have played into the former champion’s strengths. Given that Holloway has already fought both at featherweight, the size difference wouldn't have been as significant, and the fight would have come down to striking skills, where Holloway has a distinct advantage.

In conclusion, while moving up to lightweight would have likely been a difficult challenge against the champion Makhachev due to the size and wrestling disparity, it could have been a more successful move against other contenders. However, after his knockout loss to Topuria, Holloway’s chin might not be as resilient moving forward. Facing larger, more powerful opponents could prove risky for the Hawaiian, and it’s uncertain whether his durability would hold up in the lightweight division.